Timing a bull market

Image source: First Trust

Is this the top of the market? Many people fear that we are in an extended bull market and that a correction is long overdue. It is true, as I mentioned recently, there has only been one day during the past 90 or so days when the S&P 500 has declined by more than one percent.

Longer term, since the financial crisis, in 2008/09, the stock market has climbed nearly 250%. That nearly 8 year is long, but not that long relative to other bull markets. The chart above, courtesy of First Trust, shows all of the bull and bear markets since the Great Depression in 1929. Typically, the bull markets last about nine years and the subsequent bear markets last about one and a half  years.

As I frequently have suggested, you shouldn’t try to time the market. If you try to time the market, you will likely miss a big run up. Here’s a chart showing what happens when people think that the market has topped.

Image source: Marketwatch

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